How long do you expect a 2016 MMORPG to live?

One of the many features touted by Chronicles of Elyria is a 10-year storyline, over the span of which your characters will “die” probably 10 times (roughly once per year) and be reincarnated as a new character. That part is unique and neat and I hope it works.

But… 10 years? I mean, I still play Ultima Online, which turns 19 this fall, so I’m never one to knock an old game on its age alone. But the truth is that the vast majority of MMOs I’ve ever played did not hook me more than a year or two, and there are very few still competitive at their 10-year mark. Maybe I’ve become jaded in the last few years, but I no longer expect new MMORPGs to last 10 years at all, not unless they are already older and grandfathered in with a loyal base. So I gotta wonder how a new game thinks it’s going to pull it off — and whether it’s wiser to set a time frame, front load content, or keep things more open-ended.

How long do you expect an MMORPG released, say, this year, to live? How confident are you that even strong indies will pull off 10-year plans like these?

TH